The most telling quote of the 2020 political season came from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, The Republican Representative of California's 22nd district. Commenting about the legitimacy of the presidential election results, McCarthy said, "how can it be that [down ballot] Republicans have been so successful and President Trump was not?" McCarthy was referencing the fact that despite Republicans gaining forty new House seats in this month's election, President Trump appears to have lost by over five million votes, in addition to losing five swing states that he won in 2016. At first glance, one has to acknowledge that there is an incongruity in these results. Of course, we have the luxury of more than a first glance. What McCarthy brings up is not evidence that the 2020 election results are fraudulent, or premature, or even flawed in any way. It only points out an inconvenient fact for McCarthy and his colleagues: they do not understand Americans, and have not for some time.
How People Lose Touch
What the comments of McCarthy and many congressional leaders like him exposes to me is an obsession among our "representatives" with polls and inside-the-beltway issues, and an unwillingness to do the hard work of actually meeting with people of their constituencies. Is it so hard to imagine a world where not an overwhelming majority, but a plurality of American voters don't think Donald Trump is a good choice for president? Have we cheapened empirical truth to such a point that any view which dissents from our own is not only wrong, but Anti-American? It is an incredible triumph of the internet echo-chamber: a willingness to undermine the integrity of our government because the narrow talking points you've learned from your narrow sources have made you unaware that the alternative is possible, and therefore must be the result of a sinister plot to wrest control of the country from you and your friends. This is a bipartisan problem that cannot be fixed with more polls or more focus groups or more technocratic solutions. It can only be fixed by a much greater emphasis on the thing federal politicians hate most: actually speaking with voters. Had he done that, McCarthy would almost certainly have found that decency and stability still matter a great deal to the average American, and particularly to conservatives.
The 3 Halves of America
My personal assessment of Mr. Trump's time in office is such: a division of America not into two, but three roughly equal parts: his ardent supporters, his enemies, and everyone else. His ardent supporters were catered to unceasingly, which was his campaign platform, and a consistency for which I suppose he should be applauded. His enemies, i.e. ardent Democrats of many ideological stripes, were demonized, and an extension of an olive branch from the Trump camp was never even considered. The remainder of the electorate, anyone within shouting distance of the political center, were left alienated by both Trump and most of the established Democratic Party. It is a question both parties must ask themselves if they are interested in the support of a convincing majority of Americans: are they willing to risk appearing impure to their base in order to form a diverse coalition of voters, or will they stick to the hits? In order to lead, someone in our politics has to cut themselves from the anchor of their angry base.
Why the Bitterness (from the right)?
Much of the Republican failure during Mr. Trump's tenure has its roots in the history of the Conservative Movement in America. A real and imagined tendency by American media to obscure the words, actions and motivations of conservatives has created what I think can best be described as a victim complex among Conservatives: a clenched-teeth, vindictive approach to politics that is more based around retribution and ideological purity than actually representing Americans and their values. Post-WWII conservatives, if they could find one another at all, met in dark rooms to plot the reclaiming of America from those on the left as well as those who were not far enough right (the only thing worse than an enemy is a traitor). The Goldwater debacle of '64 proved the conservatives right: everyone is against them, even though they are the only ones who are right. Enter Nixon, Reagan and the Bushes, and Conservatism seems a legitimate if tenuous part of our political discourse. And yet, the "true" conservatives have no interest in burying the hatchet. Obstruction is no longer a political tactic, it is essential to proving you are a "real" conservative, and by extension a "real" American. The scars of decades of marginalization are still there, and they have become an integral part of what it means to be a "real" American conservative: bitterness.
Why the Bitterness (from the left)?
Democrats have of course fallen into a different sort of trap. Ostensibly, they have failed to hold power for long because they have taken for granted many demographic groups that have consistently voted for them, and ignored the rest. This may well be true enough. Liberal technocratic politics suggest that based on voting patterns, polls and other previously fool-proof predictors of election outcomes, a Democrat need only pay lip service to the growing minority and urban parts of their constituencies to win elections. And yet, Democrats don't have a governing mandate. The problem, of course, lies only partially in the ignorance of these groups. Democratic leadership has failed to see that the simple categorization of past voter, which was never representative to begin with, is completely inadequate for the demands of the modern voter. As the Democratic base has grown, it has become more complex, which makes the usual "the republicans are racists xenophobes" routine feel lazy and increasingly untrue. Is it really so shocking to Democrats that a much higher percentage of minority voters went to Trump this year than 2016? It shouldn't be, and it certainly would not be if they had done what they should have all along: actually speaking with voters.
TNN: Trump News Network (coming soon!)
Mr. Trump's actions since election day reflect this pattern of pandering and alienation. His reflex to sue at all costs when things don't go his way undermines his populist message: a parade of expensive and yet comically inept lawyers (why do I have to keep hearing about Rudy Giuliani?) combined with a series of unserious lawsuits is wasting the time and money of Americans and the American judicial system. What is the endgame? My firm belief is that Mr. Trump does not think he can win, nor does he want to. He did not think he could win in 2016, and he did not believe he could win November 3rd. The demands of national representation do not suit him. He has lived in a cocoon of self-interest and ignorance for his entire life, and nothing seems to disgust him more than listening to (much less representing) people that don't share his views to the letter. Perhaps this is a good personality trait for a television personality or a real estate investor, but not one that makes an acceptable president. What he will do when the dust settles is create what he has been angling to create since Obama made fun of him at the White House Correspondents Dinner in 2011: a news network that will cater completely to the most faithful consumers in America: bitter conservatives.
So Who Lost, and Who Won?
My sincere hope is that the days of people like Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi having a major impact on American politics is over. This year's election cycle has been a repudiation of them both: congress moved to the right, and the White House went to the left. Blathering tweets, grandstanding and obstructionism were voted out, but the question remains: what has been voted in? Will Joe Biden be able to be the president he apparently wants to be, at least partially bridging the partisan gap? He may well try, but he has much work to do. Few can deny that he was not a particularly compelling candidate. Though he appeared willing to distance himself from both fringes, particularly on the Green New Deal and coal, he will almost certainly yield to his party's pressure to move left on issues before he moves right. On many occasions he was his usual bumbling self, inviting mean-spirited mockery as well as legitimate questions about whether a seventy-seven year old can handle perhaps the most stressful job in the world.
2022
There are two directions in which we can move in the coming years. The first is towards an extremist arm-race that sees the pendulum of power swing farther and farther away from the center. The Tea Party, the Squad, Gingrich and Palin, AOC and Pelosi lay out a road map that leads to the most vocal and bitter portions of our politics leading us in directions that fewer and fewer of us want to go. In this scenario, nothing gets done, and no one is happy except those who enjoy seeing the other side upset. I could very easily see both parties, particularly the Republicans, splitting into centrist and populist factions that will open the door for minority leadership. That would be a meltdown of representative government that will light the "I-told-you-so" fires under the butt of every authoritarian regime that wants us to fail, and fail spectacularly. Our second option is to take the last four years as a lesson in what Americans really expect from their representatives: moderation and representation, not pandering and grandstanding. The outrage machine will churn more slowly, and Media's desire to catch our attention with bullshit will be tempered by our collective exhaustion. Celebrities and similarly shallow-minded observers of American politics will find politics boring again. Donald Trump will make a new season of The Celebrity Apprentice, starring the small army of people that he fired while he was in office. I'd watch it.
